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HMMDP Update: $VYGVF Pain + Full Breakdown

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Every Wednesday @mattsaincome updates us on his incredible journey of turning $10,000 of his own money into $1,000,000 by any legal means possible. If you want Matt to take a look at one of your trading or investment ideas feel free to share.

Here’s a podcast portfolio update for you: Arguably the pod crew’s biggest call, Voyager, is down 60% today. Based on that information, how do you think the port is doing? LOL

We’re actually fine, at $26,303.

I sold my NFTs and startup equity back to myself at slightly below market rates (to keep the challenge as fair as possible). Here’s my current portfolio:

As you can see: lots of new positions. Let’s run through my thinking a bit:

Voyager: I bought back at $0.57

It seems – based on a quick read of the news – that Voyager lent $650m to Three Arrows Capital, who turned out to be a bunch of degens who had leveraged Luna, Sol, Avax, and other shitty positions. Voyager apparently lent this money unsecured? So that they could give people interest on their crypto and attract them to the platform?

Dumb.

Sam Bankman Fried, apparently the only guy in crypto who wasn’t levered to the fucking gills, swooped in and saved Voyager with a $400m credit facility. Likely to stop contagion in an industry he has huge exposure to. He did the same with Blockfi.

A big part of me obviously wishes I had never heard of Voyager, or at least I had heard of it after reading Stan Weinstein’s How to Make Money in Bull and Bear Markets and had used an appropriately placed stop-loss to save myself from this disastrous drawdown.

We originally bought Voyager for around $5. We sold some on the way up but ended up losing all of those profits and more by swinging hard (appropriate for this kind of portfolio, but still a disastrous move).

I should have also considered the high level of counterparty risk from lending Crypto around. I think I just got swept away in the excitement without going back to my crypto roots of “not your keys, not your coins.”

Anyways, let’s fast forward a bit.

Voyager has remained on my watchlist. Today it collapsed to $100m in market cap with (I believe) $150m of cash and crypto on the books. And it has a loan from SBF and Alameda to plug the hole left by 3AC.

None of this is great. But with the stock trading like the company is about to go bankrupt (hey, it might) and with a fresh set of eyes, I like it for a little gamble. This is a company that can go to zero in a blink of an eye. But it’s also one that can double overnight with a crypto rally and some good news on the 3AC situation. 

So let me be clear: I am not chasing losses. I am not trying to make it back on voyager. I’m in it for a trade because today was doomsday, and I got to buy for under book value. There’s really no reason SBF couldn’t just buy this company and absorb it into FTX if there was ANY interesting part of the business. 

Now honestly I don’t know if there is an interesting part of the business… the tech is pretty whatever. But… I’ll take the punt as a small position. 

$AI and $AZPN I’ve covered in previous newsletters. I’m still researching, but I wanted to get in first. Could work as a long-term investment or bear market rally trade. Give me a couple of days to research. 

$BABA: This is a trade. The chart feels like it is coiling up.

$BOAC and $UTAA: SPACs at NAV to protect from downside volatility.

$ZM: I want more exposure to the market right now. You have heard what I like about this stock already. Solid, profitable company with what I feel is a sticky product growing into enterprise. The stock has been crushed and looks to be forming a base IMO.

It has held up well compared to other tech companies in the last couple of weeks. I feel like high growth may be forming a base here.

$SHOP: Don’t read into this one. Just wanted a high-growth trading chip for a couple of days. Still don’t like the valuation.

$META: Love the valuation. This is a money machine. Think Reels and WhatsApp monetization are being underestimated by the market. “Metaverse” is misunderstood. They aren’t building Decentraland. They are building a social network version of Fortnite. You don’t need to believe in crypto or NFTs or anything to know Facebook can sell digital skins like fucking hotcakes if they get the gamification right. Forget all the tech. People will buy skins. They will buy digital clothes. 

Since its release in 2017, Fortnite (a free game) has become one of the most popular games in the world. The battle royale game, in which up to 100 players fight it out at one time until one player is left standing, generated revenue of 3.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, down from 5.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2018.

How did it make that money? Not by charging for the game. But by selling digital skins inside the game that have no beneficial stats or skills. Just cosmetic. You’re telling me Zuck can’t figure out how to add digital cosmetic sales to Instagram, the most aesthetically curated town square humanity has ever built? I am loading my personal portfolio with META leaps.

That’s my update! See you next week. I will soon be releasing a podcast or newsletter where I break down some lessons from my books, and respond to all of your feedback and survey submissions (which I love reading by the way!)

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Hint: This oil field service company started as “HOWCO,” an oil field cementing company. Todayhey operate in over 70 countries making refineries, pipelines, oil field equipment, and chemical plants.

New episode of HMMDP just dropped 👇

 

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